nfl jerseys The Probability of Victory is Higher for Senator Obama Than for Senator Mccain

The probability of winning the presidential election in November, Barack Obama seems to be very robust. Here's why - (1) On the basis of opin cheap nfl jerseysion polls, it becomes clear that Obama seems rather to all states (Michigan keep close, but it is so geared Obama) that Kerry won in 2004. That would be Obama 252 electoral votes. Add the electoral votes in Iowa, which is almost certain, Obama - 7. That gives Obama 259 electoral votesOn the other hand, McCain -- at this stage -- is not likely to win all the stages that Bush won in 2004 (284 electoral votes.) McCain is almost sure to lose Iowa (7 electoral votes.) Add to this mix, Ohio (20 electoral votes), Virginia (13 electoral votes), Colorado (9 electoral votes), and New Mexico and Nevada (each with 5 electoral votes) -- there is substantial doubt if McCain can hold these states. That puts McCain at about 225 electoral votes.

(2) The more compelling arithmetic is this. Repeatedly, in large numbers of public polls about 37-38 percent of the likely voters identify themselves as Democrats

nfl jerseysand about 30 percent as republicans. That leaves about 30 percent as independents. (The Newsweek preference measure which shows that about 55 percent of the voters identify themselves as Democrats and 36 percent as Republicans is an outlier.)

Assuming both Obama and McCain get 80 percent of their party votes, the differential gain for Obama would be about 6.5 percent. In the cross-over vote of 20 percent, Obama would lose about 1.5 percent leaving a net lead of about 5 percent for Obama. Assuming that Obama and McCain split the independents, Obama's overall lead would be about 5 percent.

The only caveat is the potential Bradley-Wilder effect which accounts for about 5-7 percent.

(3) What adds to the odds of Obama's victory are three other elements: the enormous enthusiasm among democrats and much muted demeanor of the republicans (enthusiasm translates into higher voting percentage and greater voter mobilization, in some cases the enthusiasm gap between the democrats and republicans is as high as 30 points), the extra-ordinarily low approval ratings (in low 30

nfl jerseyss) of President Bush and the perception that the country is heading in the wrong direction (over 64-70 percent of Americans say this.)